The possibility of Iranian-directed attacks inside the United States and Europe must be discussed carefully.
Iran has spent years developing what counterterrorism officials have described as a “homeland option.” Researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point identified at least 17 Iranian-linked plots disrupted in the United States during a five-year period. The potential pathways include Iranian intelligence operatives, Hezbollah members, criminal organizations hired as proxies and individuals inspired to act independently.
The FBI says Iran’s global threat includes attempted terrorist attacks, kidnappings, assassination schemes, espionage, cyberattacks and operations against dissidents and current or former American officials.
Britain has faced a similar threat. British intelligence has reportedly tracked more than 20 Iranian-linked plots, often involving criminal networks hired to conduct surveillance or attacks against dissidents and Jewish or Israeli interests.
If Tehran wanted retaliation without leaving obvious Iranian fingerprints, using criminal intermediaries, proxy organizations or inspired lone actors would offer plausible deniability. The immediate danger would not necessarily resemble a centrally commanded military operation. It could instead appear as attempted assassinations, sabotage, attacks against diplomatic or religious institutions, or opportunistic violence encouraged by Iranian propaganda.
Cyberattacks may be even more likely. American authorities have repeatedly warned that Iranian actors target government networks, businesses and critical infrastructure. A recently listed federal advisory concerns Iranian-affiliated actors exploiting programmable industrial-control equipment used in American infrastructure.
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