For almost two weeks, American forces have conducted nightly attacks against Iranian air defenses, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile positions, drone-launching facilities, military command centers and maritime infrastructure.
Reuters reported that these attacks were not simply retaliation for individual Iranian actions. They were also destroying capabilities the United States would want eliminated before undertaking more complicated operations deeper inside Iran.
That is what military planners call shaping the battlefield.
The arrival of the B-1B Lancer in the renewed campaign provides another important signal. A B-1 reportedly flew from a British base to strike Revolutionary Guard targets, marking its first use since the latest fighting began. The aircraft can carry up to 75,000 pounds of conventional weapons, including two dozen 2,000-pound bombs or up to 24 long-range JASSM cruise missiles.
A B-1 is not necessarily the weapon that would be used against Iran’s deepest underground chambers. Its importance is volume. It can deliver an enormous number of precision weapons against command centers, missile sites, aircraft shelters, military industries and infrastructure during a single mission.
A strike against Pickaxe Mountain would probably require a different package. During the earlier attack on Iran’s Fordow facility, the United States used B-2 stealth bombers carrying 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrators. Fighter aircraft suppressed Iranian air defenses while a submarine launched Tomahawk missiles against other targets. Decoy aircraft were sent in another direction to conceal the operation.
A new attack could follow a similar pattern, but on a much wider scale: stealth bombers attacking underground facilities, B-1s delivering large numbers of conventional weapons, fighters suppressing remaining air defenses, ships and submarines launching cruise missiles, and cyber and electronic-warfare operations attempting to blind Iranian communications.
Dozens of additional American refueling aircraft have also reportedly been positioned in Israel as the administration considers bombing Iran’s nuclear and strategic infrastructure. Refueling aircraft are essential when large numbers of combat aircraft must remain over distant targets for extended operations.
The United States may therefore be preparing for something considerably larger than another night of limited retaliatory strikes.