The most likely opening targets would be those capable of threatening American aircraft, bases and ships: air-defense batteries, ballistic-missile launchers, drone facilities, coastal missile sites, Revolutionary Guard command centers and military communications.
A second wave could strike Iran’s strategic infrastructure.
Trump has explicitly threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every additional commercial vessel attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. His administration has also discussed strikes against nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex.
More dangerous options have reportedly included deploying American troops to seize Kharg Island, through which much of Iran’s oil historically flows. That would be far more escalatory than an air campaign because it could require amphibious forces, special-operations troops and the continuing defense of captured Iranian territory.
A ground invasion of Iran still appears highly unlikely. A concentrated campaign intended to destroy strategic assets, punish the leadership and force Tehran to reopen shipping routes is much more plausible.
The central danger is that Iran has already explained what it would do next.
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